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LU
Jul 14, 2005 19:00:27 GMT -5
Post by Sol P on Jul 14, 2005 19:00:27 GMT -5
Originally posted by david on July 9, 2005Has been a while since my last post. With the success we have been having with the mkt update plays recently, one can be easily duped into pressing this market even harder. I have been taking an opposite approach. Taking my foot off the pedal and spending more time in other endeavors. However one stock chart that I really like for the long term is LU. Below is some charts with key trend lines drawn in from my perspective. Also those familiar with some of my other posts know that I am not very big w/ indicators, however I added in MACD's using the settings I learned at the seminar. I'd appreciate if other members who are stronger in that area take a look and chime in with their thoughts. LU 5-year Chart: 3 year chart: Last 6 months: Key Price Points - Bullish:3.20,3.55,5.00 Bearish:2.75 (2.30 also but will signal extreme oversold condition) P.S. - Imageshack has been acting up lately. If anyone is having trouble posting/viewing charts, try to hit the refresh and retry button a couple times. It might also be time to look at some other options for posting charts up on the board.
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LU
Jul 14, 2005 19:01:39 GMT -5
Post by Sol P on Jul 14, 2005 19:01:39 GMT -5
Originally posted by Jerr on July 10, 2005Here is a weekly chart of LU with all the fandanggos that I use. The short of it, it is in a well established downtrend since Jan of 2004. However, there are certain indications that imply the April 2005 low is it! Money flow is changing which is good. The April 2005 low represents a Fibanoci(sp) retracement of 61.8% of the up move from the October 2002 low to the Jan 2004 high which is also good. AND, the biggy, if price can hold above the dotted red line when it comes down to test it (which I believe it will), then I can easily see it going to test the April 2005 high at around five bucks, and possibly higher.
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LU
Jul 15, 2005 22:09:54 GMT -5
Post by masalai on Jul 15, 2005 22:09:54 GMT -5
David and Jerr, where are you getting your charts, and also, does just the Chaikin Money Flow Indicator showing a positive divergence mean enough to consider a purchase? I doubt it but had to ask...
You entered the red line, is this entered because it is the last low or does the May03 peak have any play in this. Just trying to understand the logic behind the "red line"...
I am thinking with the CMF going positive if it can bouce off the last low (red line) then that is bullish and could push to higher highs...
Let me know if my logic is solid... Thanks!
Masalai
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LU
Jul 16, 2005 17:40:54 GMT -5
Post by Jerr on Jul 16, 2005 17:40:54 GMT -5
I get my charts from stockcharts.com. They have a free section to which one has many indicators available to them. The pay part just makes things a lot easier to manage.
The money flow of and by itself is rather if-fy. It takes the close of the day and determines if it was in the above half of the day's range (+) or the bottom half (-) and then multiplies it by volume for a period of 20 days. I like it because it is one of the few indicators that take both price and volume into consideration. It does have a flaw though. Price can gap up and then the close near the bottom of the day's trading range and thus giving it a negative value instead of a positive one. I have found it is pretty good if used with stochastic IE stochastic is at a low and MF shows a divergence. Also, if MF is deep in selling territory and shows a divergence with a low stochastic, then it is quite possible for price to make one more low before taking off.
The red dotted line was meant to show how much support the recent low had, and it is used as a general area of support. I should have tried to make it straighter and continue it more to the left. There is a pretty good "band" of support from 2 to the dotted line, just in case the current low does not hold.
Your logic (bounce off the dotted red line with MF holding a good divergence or going even positive) does sound valid. I would add that you watch stochastic too for another divergence.
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LU
Jul 16, 2005 23:55:09 GMT -5
Post by masalai on Jul 16, 2005 23:55:09 GMT -5
Jerr, thanks for your reply! I think I will watch this one just to see what it does, it will be fun to watch any more divergences as they occur and see if a "buy-in" can be indicated by several indicators lining up. I hadn't really looked too closely at the CMF indicator in the past but I can totally see how that could be an indicator of value... The red line almost looks like an average of price over the last 3 years, is that how you determined the support levels or is this more of a case of "eye-balling" the chart?? I guess I'm wondering if there is a logical manner in determining this level of support or if it is more intuitive? btw... Thanks for your previous, speedy reply ! Masalai
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LU
Jul 17, 2005 19:56:32 GMT -5
Post by Jerr on Jul 17, 2005 19:56:32 GMT -5
The red dotted support line is drawn based on the last low. I take the last low and draw a horizontal line and see how many points get hit in the past or how close I am to where there would be allot of points.
In LU case, there is an inverse head and shoulders pattern in Oct of '02. The shoulder part usually offers allot of good support--at around 2 in LU case. There is also some support at where I drew the current line. This is why I said there was a chance for price to break the current low by a little bit and may even spike to 2, which either way will set up some good divergences across the board.
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LU
Jul 30, 2005 20:19:10 GMT -5
Post by David on Jul 30, 2005 20:19:10 GMT -5
Update on LU: Stock started to take off, rallied close to 3.30 then they reported earnings. Analysts from one of the big firms ( I forget who) said they saw 20% downside and no upside. How someone can look at a chart like this and see no upside boggles me. But in anycase, the negative news was priced in and LU could not break strong support at 2.80. This strenghens my opinion that LU is a strong long term buy an is a good bargain at this price range. Below you will find updated daily and weekly. LU Daily: LU Weekly:
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